nilesh shah street view: Nilesh Shah on why you should never predict the market

nilesh shah street view: Nilesh Shah on why you should never predict the market

Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC believes predicting where the market would be in, say, 5 or 10 years is pointless because more often than not, you would be wrong.

Speaking at the Times Network India Economic Conclave, Shah said there is much more to stock markets than just predicting the levels.

“Ek cheej humne seekhi hai, market ko predict karne ke koshish mat karo. More often than not, you will be wrong (We have learnt one thing. If you try to predict the market, you will often be wrong),” he said.

Shah went on to add that the Sensex at 1,00,000 is much more imaginable now, but there is also a longer journey beyond. He was reacting to BSE Sensex hitting the 1,00,000 mark in the next four years.

Earlier, other D-Street doyens, including Chris Wood, Mark Mobius, Shankar Sharma and Sandip Sabharwal, exuded confidence that Sensex is likely to hit the 100,000 mark over the next 4-5 years, riding on the robust economic growth of the country.

Jefferies’ Global Head of Equity Strategy Chris Wood last week said the 1,00,000 mark seemed reasonable for the 30-stock index in 5 years and that he would be disappointed if it did not happen during this time.

The benchmark is currently hovering around 63,000 levels and it needs to surge over 60% to hit the coveted 1,00,000 figure.Further, Shah said the most underrated thing is management and governance of a company.

“If people start respecting management and governance, chances of losing money in the stock market will be very-very limited. We need people who are paranoid. We need management and companies which are always worried about the disruption coming. You have to invest in companies which are disrupting their own business model rather than waiting for their competitor to come and disrupt. If you look at governance and disruption, you will make money in the stock market,” the D-Street veteran said.

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